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Latest poll confirms possibility of a first-round win for Lula

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Brazilian pollster Ipec released its latest electoral survey on Monday evening, confirming the trend observed in other polls and highlighted by The Brazilian Report last week: a first-round win is in reach for the frontrunner, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is consolidating his important lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, whose support is stagnating.

With six days to go until Election Day, Lula has 48 percent of voting intentions in the Ipec poll, a one-point increase from last week, to an unchanged 31 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro.

Leftist Ciro Gomes, who today reaffirmed his candidacy amid pressure for him to pull out of the race so as to assure a first-round win for Lula, is polling on 6 percent (down one point), while center-right candidate Simone Tebet remains on 5 percent.

Lula would receive 52 percent of the valid vote to 34 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro, according to Ipec, thus guaranteeing a win this coming Sunday for the former two-term president.

This latest poll confirms the remarkable stability of the Brazilian electorate’s voting intentions throughout this campaign, while indicating that the Lula camp’s calls for tactical voting may be bearing fruit.

Lula did not take part in a televised debate organized by television stations CNN Brasil and SBT on Saturday night. His absence was harshly criticized by his electoral rivals, but the debate had poor ratings and seemingly no effect on voting intentions.

Lula has confirmed his attendance at a debate organized by TV Globo on Thursday, three days before the elections, when he is expected to double down on calls for tactical voting.

Ipec will still publish another reading of the race on Saturday, on the eve of Election Day.

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